Basile, S., Crimmins, A., Lipschultz, F., Kunkel, K. E., Marvel, K., Terando, A., Tebaldi, C., Pierce, D., Su, W., Leung, L. R., & Hayhoe, K. (2025). Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future. Climatic Change, 178(4), 84. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6

Shulgina, T., Gershunov, A., Hatchett, B. J., Guirguis, K., Subramanian, A. C., Margulis, S. A., Fang, Y., Cayan, D. R., Pierce, D. W., Dettinger, M., Anderson, M. L., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). Observed and projected changes in snow accumulation and snowline in California’s snowy mountains. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06776-w

Goldenson, N., Leung, L. R., Mearns, L. O., Pierce, D. W., Reed, K. A., Simpson, I. R., Ullrich, P., Krantz, W., Hall, A., Jones, A., & Rahimi, S. (2023). Use-Inspired, Process-Oriented GCM Selection: Prioritizing Models for Regional Dynamical Downscaling. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104(9), E1619–E1629. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0100.1

Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Feldman, D. R., & Risser, M. D. (2023). Future Increases in North American Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Downscaled with LOCA. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24(5), 951–975. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0194.1

Risser, M. D., Feldman, D. R., Wehner, M. F., Pierce, D. W., & Arnold, J. R. (2021). Identifying and correcting biases in localized downscaling estimates of daily precipitation return values. Climatic Change, 169(3–4), 20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03265-z

Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Goodrich, J., Das, T., & Munevar, A. (2021). Evaluating global climate models for hydrological studies of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 26. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12974

Pierce, D. W., Su, L., Cayan, D. R., Risser, M. D., Livneh, B., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2021). An extreme-preserving long-term gridded daily precipitation dataset for the conterminous United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(7), 1883–1895. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-20-0212.1

Gershunov, A., Morales, J. G., Hatchett, B., Guirguis, K., Aguilera, R., Shulgina, T., Abatzoglou, J. T., Cayan, D., Pierce, D., Williams, P., Small, I., Clemesha, R., Schwarz, L., Benmarhnia, T., & Tardy, A. (2021). Hot and cold flavors of southern California’s Santa Ana winds: their causes, trends, and links with wildfire. Climate Dynamics, 16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05802-z

Wang, G. L., Kirchhoff, C. J., Seth, A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Livneh, B., Pierce, D. W., Fomenko, L., & Ding, T. Y. (2020). Projected changes of precipitation characteristics depend on downscaling method and training data: MACA versus LOCA using the US Northeast as an example. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21(12), 2739–2758. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-19-0275.1

Walton, D., Berg, N., Pierce, D., Maurer, E., Hall, A., Lin, Y. H., Rahimi, S., & Cayan, D. (2020). Understanding differences in California climate projections produced by dynamical and statistical downscaling. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 125(19). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd032812

Zhang, Z. H., Pierce, D. W., & Cayan, D. R. (2019). A deficit of seasonal temperature forecast skill over west coast regions in NMME. Weather and Forecasting, 34(4), 833–848. https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0172.1

Knowles, N., Cronkite-Ratcliff, C., Pierce, D. W., & Cayan, D. R. (2018). Responses of unimpaired flows, storage, and managed flows to scenarios of climate change in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Watershed. Water Resources Research, 54(10), 7631–7650. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr022852

Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Pierce, D. W. (2018). Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US. Climate Dynamics, 50(9–10), 3853–3864. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3

Franco, G. F., Cayan, D. R., Pierce, D. W., Westerling, A. L., & Thorne, J. H. (2018). Cumulative global CO2 emissions and their climate impact from local through regional scales: A Report for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment.

Pierce, D. W., Kalansky, J. F., & Cayan, D. R. (2018). Climate, Drought, and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment: A Report for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. California Energy Commission.

Pierce, D. W., & Cayan, D. R. (2016). Downscaling humidity with Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) over the conterminous United States. Climate Dynamics, 47(1–2), 411–431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2845-1

DeFlorio, M. J., Goodwin, I. D., Cayan, D. R., Miller, A. J., Ghan, S. J., Pierce, D. W., Russell, L. M., & Singh, B. (2016). Interannual modulation of subtropical Atlantic boreal summer dust variability by ENSO. Climate Dynamics, 46(1–2), 585–599. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2600-7

Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Maurer, E. P., Abatzoglou, J. T., & Hegewisch, K. C. (2015). Improved bias correction techniques for hydrological simulations of climate change. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16(6), 2421–2442. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-14-0236.1

Livneh, B., Bohn, T. J., Pierce, D. W., Munoz-Arriola, F., Nijssen, B., Vose, R., Cayan, D. R., & Brekke, L. (2015). A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the U.S., and Southern Canada 1950–2013. Scientific Data, 2(1), 150042. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.42

Xu, L., Pierce, D. W., Russell, L. M., Miller, A. J., Somerville, R. C. J., Twohy, C. H., Ghan, S. J., Singh, B., Yoon, J.-H., & Rasch, P. J. (2015). Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022888

Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., & Thrasher, B. L. (2014). Statistical downscaling using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15(6), 2558–2585. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-14-0082.1

Polade, S. D., Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Gershunov, A., & Dettinger, M. D. (2014). The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes. Scientific Reports, 4. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep04364

Maurer, E. P., & Pierce, D. W. (2014). Bias correction can modify climate model simulated precipitation changes without adverse effect on the ensemble mean. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(3), 915–925. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-915-2014

Das, T., Maurer, E. P., Pierce, D. W., Dettinger, M. D., & Cayan, D. R. (2013). Increases in flood magnitudes in California under warming climates. Journal of Hydrology, 501, 101–110.

Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Das, T., Maurer, E. P., Miller, N. L., Bao, Y., Kanamitsu, M., Yoshimura, K., Snyder, M. A., Sloan, L. C., Franco, G., & Tyree, M. (2013). The key role of heavy precipitation events in climate model disagreements of future annual precipitation changes in California. Journal of Climate, 26(16), 5879–5896. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00766.1

Pierce, D. W., & Cayan, D. R. (2013). The uneven response of different snow measures to human-induced climate warming. Journal of Climate, 26(12), 4148–4167. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00534.1

Pierce, D. W., Westerling, A. L., & Oyler, J. (2013). Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(5), 1833–1850. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1833-2013

Pierce, D. W., Das, T., Cayan, D. R., Maurer, E. P., Miller, N. L., Bao, Y., Kanamitsu, M., Yoshimura, K., Snyder, M. A., Sloan, L. C., Franco, G., & Tyree, M. (2013). Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling. Climate Dynamics, 40(3–4), 839–856. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1337-9